Fusion energy promises a sustainable and zero-emission power source for the future, contingent upon the successful construction and operation of fusion plants. However, recent research casts doubt on the affordability of this potential energy revolution. Despite the general trend of decreasing costs in energy technologies—like lithium-ion batteries, which have seen a remarkable 90% price drop since 2013—experts suggest that fusion power may not follow the same trajectory.
The cost forecasting for fusion energy involves analyzing a metric known as the ‘experience rate,’ which indicates the percentage drop in costs each time the capacity doubles. Historically, this figure has shown significant variability across different energy technologies. For instance, onshore wind power boasts an experience rate of 12%, lithium-ion batteries 20%, and solar modules 23%. In contrast, nuclear fission has a mere 2% experience rate, indicating a much slower decline in costs. A recent study published in Nature Energy sought to refine predictions surrounding fusion’s cost dynamics by assessing its expected experience rate based on characteristics like unit size, design complexity, and customization needs.
Through interviews with fusion experts from both public and private sectors, researchers evaluated the anticipated experience rate for fusion plants. The consensus is that while fusion plants will likely be large and complex—similar to coal and fission facilities—they will require less customization than fission due to simpler regulatory frameworks. The researchers concluded that fusion’s experience rate is likely to fall between 2% and 8%, suggesting a more modest price reduction compared to other renewable technologies. This slower rate of cost decline raises questions about the sustainability of current investments in fusion, especially as governments and private sectors allocate billions toward its development. While some experts caution against overly optimistic projections based on historical data, they also emphasize the unpredictable nature of technological advancements, regulatory environments, and market dynamics in shaping the future landscape of energy pricing.
Source: Will fusion power get cheap? Don’t count on it. via MIT Technology Review