A San Francisco-based nonprofit organization has launched a comprehensive roadmap outlining the necessary experiments, studies, and infrastructure required to make informed decisions about solar geoengineering. This initiative, revealed by MIT Technology Review, seeks to address the significant gaps in scientific understanding regarding the efficacy and implications of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI)—a concept that has been under investigation for over 50 years. SAI involves the release of reflective particles into the stratosphere to mimic the natural cooling effects of volcanic eruptions, yet uncertainties remain about its potential benefits and risks.
Reflective, the organization behind the roadmap, aims to expedite research on solar geoengineering by providing a structured approach to fill existing knowledge voids. Dakota Gruener, co-founder and CEO of Reflective, emphasizes the urgency of gathering data to support critical decision-making in the face of climate change. The roadmap estimates that a coordinated research effort could take about a decade and cost approximately $1 billion, while unorganized research could extend the timeline to 15 years, requiring nearly $4 billion. Notably, while Reflective does not endorse the immediate use of SAI, it advocates for outdoor experiments that would gradually increase sulfur dioxide release in the stratosphere to gather empirical data—a proposition that has sparked controversy among environmental scholars.
The roadmap is designed to progress through several phases, each tailored to address key uncertainties. The first phase focuses on foundational knowledge, involving computer simulations and laboratory experiments to evaluate potential ecological impacts and the effects on atmospheric conditions. This initial stage is projected to last 2-3 years and cost between $50 million and $100 million. Subsequent phases will test larger-scale SAI deployments using modified aircraft to release sulfur dioxide, ultimately aimed at reducing uncertainty about cooling efficacy. Gruener acknowledges that the roadmap is a living document, intended to evolve based on feedback from the scientific community and stakeholders. As Reflective continues to build on its research, it remains committed to ensuring that any advancements in solar geoengineering are grounded in comprehensive scientific inquiry and ethical considerations.
Source: This road map could help us decide whether to deploy solar geoengineering via MIT Technology Review