In mid-October, an unsettling incident occurred when a mysterious object struck the windshield of a packed Boeing airplane flying at 30,000 feet above Utah, prompting the pilots to make an emergency landing. Initially, the online speculation suggested that the aircraft had been hit by space debris. While the exact cause of the impact remains unclear, it is believed to have been a remnant of a weather balloon. This incident has sparked renewed discussions about the increasing risk posed by space debris, despite the current low probability of such events.
According to the European Space Agency, approximately three pieces of space debris, which include remnants from spent rockets and defunct satellites, re-enter Earth’s atmosphere each day. As the number of active satellites orbiting our planet continues to rise—currently around 3,000, with projections suggesting 10,000 by the next decade—the risk of collisions is expected to escalate. While satellite operators attempt to minimize these risks by directing old satellites to burn up upon reentry, the effectiveness of this process is not fully understood, leading to concerns about the increasing frequency of debris impacting the ground.
Historically, space debris has not yet caused injuries, but several close calls have raised alarms. Notable incidents include a 1-kilogram fragment from a battery pallet of the International Space Station that crashed through a Florida home and a 2-meter-long piece from a SpaceX Falcon rocket that fell near Poznan, Poland. Experts warn that the actual risk may be underestimated, as many debris incidents go unnoticed. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has calculated that by 2030, there could be an estimated one catastrophic space debris collision per year involving commercial flights, while the risk of ground impacts could result in fatalities every couple of years. To address these emerging threats, advancements in artificial intelligence are being explored to improve predictions of debris trajectories, although significant challenges remain in accurately forecasting reentry paths. As the number of satellites grows, so does the urgency for effective monitoring and safety measures to protect both aviation and the general public from potential space debris hazards.
Source: What is the chance your plane will be hit by space debris? via MIT Technology Review